THE VAULT DOCUMENT
Scientific Method
The Scientific Method is a systematic approach used to investigate observations, evaluate evidence and develop explanations based on testing, measurement and critical analysis.
Within The Vault, the scientific method provides the foundation for assessing claims involving alleged paranormal phenomena, unexplained events, historical mysteries and unusual observations.
The scientific method does not require accepting or rejecting a claim before investigation. Instead, it provides a framework for determining:
- What evidence exists.
- How reliable that evidence is.
- Whether alternative explanations exist.
- How strongly a conclusion can be supported.
The purpose of this process is to ensure that articles within The Vault separate reported events from interpretations of those events.
The scientific approach
Scientific investigation follows a process designed to reduce error and bias.
The general process involves:
- Observation — Identifying an event, claim or phenomenon requiring investigation.
- Question — Defining what is being investigated.
- Hypothesis — Creating a possible explanation.
- Testing — Collecting evidence through observation, measurement or experiment.
- Analysis — Reviewing results and considering alternative explanations.
- Conclusion — Determining what the evidence supports.
- Replication — Allowing others to independently test findings.
Observation does not equal explanation
A key principle of scientific investigation is that an observation and an explanation are separate things.
For example:
A witness reports seeing an unexplained object in the sky.
The observation may be:
- A person saw something unusual.
- A photograph or video exists.
- Multiple witnesses reported a similar event.
However, possible explanations may include:
- An aircraft.
- A satellite.
- A natural atmospheric phenomenon.
- A human-made object.
- An unknown cause.
The scientific method examines which explanation is best supported by evidence.
Evidence and claims
The Vault distinguishes between different levels of information.
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Report | A person or source states that an event occurred. |
| Observation | Something was witnessed, recorded or measured. |
| Evidence | Information that supports or challenges an explanation. |
| Hypothesis | A proposed explanation that can be tested. |
| Theory | A well-supported explanation based on substantial evidence. |
| Verified finding | Evidence independently confirmed through recognised methods. |
A reported event may be genuine in the sense that someone experienced something unusual, while the explanation for that event may remain uncertain.
Falsifiability
One of the most important principles of science is falsifiability.
A claim must allow the possibility that evidence could show it to be incorrect.
Examples:
Testable claim:
"Unusual sounds reported in an old building are caused by structural movement."
This can be investigated through:
- Environmental monitoring.
- Acoustic recording.
- Structural inspection.
Untestable claim:
"The sounds are caused by an invisible force that cannot be detected."
This cannot currently be evaluated scientifically because there is no method to test or disprove it.
Controls and investigation methods
Reliable investigations attempt to reduce factors that may influence results.
Important considerations include:
Controlled conditions
Investigators attempt to keep conditions consistent so results can be compared.
Measurement
Where possible, investigations use measurable data such as:
- Temperature.
- Electromagnetic fields.
- Audio recordings.
- Video recordings.
- Environmental conditions.
Measurements alone do not prove a paranormal explanation, but they may help identify possible causes.
Independent verification
Evidence becomes stronger when independent investigators can examine and reproduce findings.
Replication
Replication is a central part of scientific research.
A single unexplained event may be interesting, but repeated results under controlled conditions provide stronger evidence.
Many alleged paranormal phenomena are difficult to replicate because:
- Events occur unpredictably.
- Conditions cannot always be controlled.
- Evidence is often based on personal experience.
- Investigators may not know when or where an event will occur.
Applying the scientific method to paranormal claims
The scientific method can be applied to many subjects documented within The Vault, including:
- Ghosts and Hauntings
- UFOs and Sightings
- Cryptids
- Parapsychology
- Unexplained Phenomena
- Historical Mysteries
Examples:
Haunted locations
A reported haunting may be investigated by examining:
- Witness accounts.
- Historical records.
- Building history.
- Environmental conditions.
- Possible natural explanations.
UFO sightings
A reported sighting may be examined through:
- Witness reliability.
- Photographic analysis.
- Flight records.
- Astronomical data.
- Weather information.
Cryptid reports
A creature report may be assessed through:
- Witness testimony.
- Photographic evidence.
- Biological possibility.
- Environmental factors.
- Physical evidence.
Common problems in evaluating evidence
Confirmation bias
Confirmation bias occurs when people favour information that supports their existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
Both believers and sceptics can be affected by bias.
Anecdotal evidence
Personal testimony can be valuable, particularly when documenting historical events, but it has limitations.
Human memory can be affected by:
- Time.
- Expectation.
- Stress.
- Interpretation.
Correlation versus causation
Two events occurring together does not necessarily mean one caused the other.
Example:
"A building became haunted after it became old."
Possible explanation:
The age of the building may increase unusual sounds, drafts or mechanical issues.
Absence of evidence
A lack of evidence does not automatically prove that something did not happen.
However, extraordinary claims generally require stronger evidence before they can be accepted.
The Vault assessment approach
The Vault uses principles based on scientific investigation when assessing cases.
Articles consider:
- Quality of sources.
- Reliability of witnesses.
- Available evidence.
- Alternative explanations.
- Independent investigation.
- Historical context.
- Reproducibility.
The Vault does not attempt to prove or disprove every claim. Instead, it documents:
- What was reported.
- What evidence exists.
- What explanations have been proposed.
- How strong the evidence currently appears.
See:
Related pages
- TheVault:Evidence Rating System
- TheVault:Research Methodology
- Paranormal Evidence
- Scientific Research
- Scepticism